PNG’s REDD+ Results 2016-2018 (BUR2)

REDD+ Results 2016-2018: Linear Projection (Technically Assessed)

Decision 14/ CP.19, paragraph 3, “agrees that the data and information used by Parties in the estimation of anthropogenic forest-related emissions by sources and removals by sinks, forest carbon stocks, and forest-area changes, as appropriate to the activities referred to in decision 1/CP.16, paragraph 70, undertaken by Parties, should be transparent, and consistent over time and with the established forest reference emission levels and/or forest reference levels in accordance with decision 1/CP.16, paragraph 71(b) and (c) and section II of decision 12/CP.17”. 

CO2 emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in Papua New Guinea in the period from 2001 to 2013, used in the construction of the FRL, were estimated using the formula: 

Annual emission (tCO2e) = 1,679,607 x Year -3,339,358,08515 

For this Technical Annex, the REDD+ results for the years 2016, 2017, and 2018 were calculated using the same approach, simply by subtracting the Total Emissions and Removals values for that period from the FRL 2014 -2018 results. However, PNG realised that the linear extrapolation of post-deforestation removals would result in an over-estimation of emission reduction, i.e. an over-estimation of results, therefore it proposed a small correction as explained in section 3.2. So for year t, the reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation16 were as follows: 

REDD+Results (t)
=FRL (2014 to 2018)-Total Emissions and Removals at year t – Post deforestation c correction at year t;(tCO2/yr) 

Hence, the emission reduction in 2016 corresponds to: 

46, 728,951 tCO2 – 31, 700,092 tCO2 – 1, 251,557 tCO2 = 13, 777,302 tCO2eq/year, etc.

The total results achieved by PNG in reducing emissions by REDD+ activities from 2016 to 2018, was the sum of the results achieved for each year of the period shown in the table below.  

REDD+ Results 2016 – 2018 (against the Linear Projected FRL) 

Total REDD+ result achieved by PNG in the years 2016 – 2018 against the Technically Assessed FRL (2017) = 13,777,302 tCO2 + 24,394,158 tCO2 + 23, 169, 695 tCO2 = 61,341,155 18tCO2eq/year. 


REDD+ Results achieved by PNG from in 2016, 2017, and 2018 assessed against PNG’s technically assessed FRL


Source: PNG’s Second Biennial Update Report (BUR2): Technical Annex
3.1 The REDD+ results relative to the FRL in terms of CO2 equivalent

REDD+ Results 2016-2018: Historical Average (for GCF RBP Pilot)

REDD+ Results Calculation 

The REDD+ results for the years 2016 to 2018 were assessed against the recalculated historical average FRL of 5-year (2009-2013) Historical Average plus 0.02% of total carbon stock in 2013. The following formula was applied to calculate the REDD+ results:

REDD+ results (t) = FRL (Historical Average + 0.02% of total C Stock) 2014 to 2018 – Total Emissions and Removals at year t; (tCO2/yr.) 

Thus, REDD+ results achieved by Papua New Guinea in 2016, 2017 and 2018 against the historical average FRL is calculated as follows:

  1. 2016: 42,172,324 tCO2 – 31,700,092 tCO2= 10,472,232 tCO2 eq/year 
  2. 2017: 42,172,324 tCO2 – 22,462,875 tCO2 = 19,709,449 tCO2 eq/year
  3. 2018: 42,172,324 tCO2 – 25,039,130 tCO2 = 17,133,195 tCO2 eq/year 

Total REDD+ results achieved by PNG in 2016, 2017, and 2018 against the Historical Average FRL= 10,472,232 tCO2 + 19,709,449 tCO2 + 17,133,195 tCO2 = 47, 314,877 tCO2 eq/year.  

REDD+ Results 2016-2018 (against the Historical Average FRL)


Source: PNG’s Second Biennial Update Report (BUR2): Technical Annex