Expected Emissions For The Results-Reporting Period

CO2 emission and removal of the three REDD+ activities Deforestation, Forest Degradation and Carbon Enhancement during the historical reference period from 2001 to 2013 is provided in Table 10.1.  During the reference period, CO2 emissions of the three REDD+ activities show rapid and steady increase (Figure 10.1).  The linear model is remarkably strong with very high coefficient of determination (R2=0.84). Such trend of increasing emission is considered reflecting the national circumstance described in Chapter 8 well.  It is considered that linear model is the most appropriate to be used for PNG Forest Reference Level.

PNG Forest Reference Level is;

Annual emission (tCO2e) = 1,642,446 x Year -3,265,040,780

Figure 1: Historical Emissions & Removals 2001-2013 and FRL 2014-2018

Figure 2: Annual CO2 emission of three REDD+ activities (Deforestation, Forest Degradation and Carbon Enhancement) during the historical reference period 2001-2013